russia’s Real Estate Market Has Become a New Front in the Economic Collapse

The share of housing units being built by russia’s four largest developers that are behind schedule has increased nearly fivefold over the past year – from 3.2% to over 15%. As of April 2026, this amounts to over 2.4 million square meters in the portfolios of “samolet” group, PJSC “pik”, “dogma”, and fsk group – and the figure continues to rise.

“samoleot” is in the worst shape: of the 4.95 million square meters under construction, 1.66 million are already behind schedule. At “dogma”, the share of problematic projects jumped from 3.1% to 8.7% in just two months. Among regional developers, the picture is even worse – in some cases, delays have already affected 50–60% of projects.

The reasons lie in the systemic decline of the industry. High interest rates have killed mortgage demand, the debt burden is weighing on developers, while construction costs are rising due to higher labor and material costs. As a result, developers are cutting costs where it’s easiest – on materials, engineering solutions, contractors, and quality control. Ultimately, the buyer suffers.

93% of new apartment owners in russia have reported defects in their newly completed homes. Every fourth complains about leaks, every third – about crooked walls and floors, and more than two-thirds – about faulty windows. The new housing market has effectively turned into a market for warranty claims.

The combination of expensive financing, weak demand, and inflated costs leaves developers with little room to maneuver. The most vulnerable are regional companies and those that took on debt at the market’s peak: for them, delays in project completion risk triggering a liquidity crisis, lawsuits from buyers, and debt restructuring. For russia’s overall economy, this means a slowdown in related industries, a rise in the share of non-performing loans in the banking sector, and additional pressure on already strained regional budgets.